🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.