Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”