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Just two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.