Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.