Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average number of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers may not point to enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had during these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the least number of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an apparently steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could hide days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.